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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Another Rough Summer For The West, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 3 months ago
(sorry, I don’t have a good fresh photo of the red smoky sun!)
As you can probably tell, it’s been a very tough summer for much of the Western U.S., and even parts of Canada. So far there have been five big […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Quickie: Once More Unto H@ll, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 3 months ago
Well…here we are again folks, in the middle of heatwave #3.
Weather models the past couple weeks have really struggled with the long-range forecast. Back during our lengthy late July inferno, there was a strong […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Quickie: Once More Unto H@ll, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 3 months ago
Well…here we are again folks, in the middle of heatwave #3.
Weather models the past couple weeks have really struggled with the long-range forecast. Back during our lengthy late July inferno, there was a […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, A Sizzling Hot July; Will August Be Any Better?, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 3 months ago
Good morning! I imagine many of us in the Pacific Northwest are feeling refreshed and relieved today; the big heat wave that dominated all of late July is finally over! Yesterday August 1, the last of the hot air […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, A Sizzling Hot July; Will August Be Any Better?, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 3 months ago
Good morning! I imagine many of us in the Pacific Northwest are feeling refreshed and relieved today; the big heat wave that dominated all of late July is finally over! Yesterday August 1, the last of the hot air […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, July Brings Heat…And BIG Wildfires, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 4 months ago
It’s sure been a hot July in the Pacific Northwest, including the Columbia River Gorge! Here in The Dalles, our temperatures for the first 17 days of the month are running about 4.0 degrees F above normal. The […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, July Brings Heat…And BIG Wildfires, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 4 months ago
It’s sure been a hot July in the Pacific Northwest, including the Columbia River Gorge! Here in The Dalles, our temperatures for the first 17 days of the month are running about 4.0 degrees F above normal. The […]
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Karl Bonner commented on the post, HAPPY VALLEY, OREGON WEATHER: MARCH 2019, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 4 months ago
1. I’m guessing that springtime amplification may have something to do with the jet stream. Remember, one supposed side-effect of a rapidly warming climate, is that the jet can get bent out of its “normal” shape when the global temperature is steady. That would mean more pronounced cool and warm anomalies – at least relative to the decadal…[Read more]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, July Looking Like…September?, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 4 months ago
It’s the most boring time of year weatherwise, but thought I’d try to find something interesting to chime in about.
First of all…our June in The Dalles was slightly warmer than average, but definitely not hot. […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, July Looking Like…September?, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 4 months ago
It’s the most boring time of year weatherwise, but thought I’d try to find something interesting to chime in about.
First of all…our June in The Dalles was slightly warmer than average, but definitely not […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Possible Thunderstorms Later Today?, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 5 months ago
This is going to be real quick, but after a decent thunderstorm near The Dalles on Saturday and a big storm with outflow winds, for the Portland Metro on Sunday – today we’re going to have another good shot at […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Possible Thunderstorms Later Today?, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 5 months ago
This is going to be real quick, but after a decent thunderstorm near The Dalles on Saturday and a big storm with outflow winds, for the Portland Metro on Sunday – today we’re going to have another good shot at […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Spring 2018: Continuing The Warm Trend, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 5 months ago
What a fun weather day for June! In the Portland Metro area there were heavy thunderstorms with dime-sized hail in places, and even reports of a minor tornado in East Vancouver. Here in The Dalles though, the big […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Spring 2018: Continuing The Warm Trend, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 5 months ago
What a fun weather day for June! In the Portland Metro area there were heavy thunderstorms with dime-sized hail in places, and even reports of a minor tornado in East Vancouver. Here in The Dalles though, the big […]
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Awesome post Karl! A couple questions:
1.) Any idea why the springs have become so amplified as of late? Maybe it could be because we’ve had some pretty big El Nino/La Nina swings, and the Neutral years we’ve had have been quite variable. 2007-2008 and 2010-2011 were both very cool springs and were moderate/strong La Ninas… I remember this because I’m a skier and the ski season lasted a long time! The graph also shows 2009-2010 (which was an El Nino) having a cool spring, which is interesting.
The most anomalous years are actually usually weak ENSO or Neutral years (2014-2015 and 2016-2017 are great examples), and many of our recent Neutral years have been very anomalous indeed.
2.) How did you get the 98% for global warming? Seems like a good estimate (I’d go a little higher personally, like 99 or 99.5, but that’s just an off-the-cuff guess).
Also, it would be interesting to find the correlation coefficient between average March/May rainfall and temperature. This can be easily compiled manually by fetching data from NOAA’s NOW data and then putting it into Excel.
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1. I’m guessing that springtime amplification may have something to do with the jet stream. Remember, one supposed side-effect of a rapidly warming climate, is that the jet can get bent out of its “normal” shape when the global temperature is steady. That would mean more pronounced cool and warm anomalies – at least relative to the decadal temperature trend. (Not the 30- or 100-year averages, of course!)
2. I’m just using the number 98% as a metaphor for “It’s pretty damn obvious that it’s gettin’ warmer!” I haven’t actually looked at the future simulations/distributions myself. But the data over the past half century is telling enough.
3. While I haven’t done any R-squared ops for temperature vs. precipitation, I DO know that a lot of super-cool springs haven’t been exceptionally wet. (Spring 2011 was an exception.) My guess is that you need the somewhat warmer, muggier airmasses of the central Pacific if you want really heavy rainfall in the spring. The deep cold troughs out of Western Canada are just a little too crisp to soak us. (Kind of like how really heavy fall rains can occur in a mild ‘Pineapple Express’ pattern)
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Summer In May: A Record Warm Month Thus Far, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 6 months ago
It sure has been warm and dry this May…but if you haven’t been keeping close track of the numbers, you may be shocked to find out just how warm it truly is. At least in The Dalles, it’s been MUCH warmer […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Summer In May: A Record Warm Month Thus Far, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 6 months ago
It sure has been warm and dry this May…but if you haven’t been keeping close track of the numbers, you may be shocked to find out just how warm it truly is. At least in The Dalles, it’s been MUCH […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, I'm Back! May Heatwave In Progress…, on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 6 months ago
Hi there! Sorry for my long absence from blogging, but I’ve had a VERY stressful and drama-laden couple of months. Issues with family, with personal relationships (both my own and those of some of my friends), and […]
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, I'm Back! May Heatwave In Progress…, on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 6 months ago
Hi there! Sorry for my long absence from blogging, but I’ve had a VERY stressful and drama-laden couple of months. Issues with family, with personal relationships (both my own and those of some of my friends), and […]
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Karl Bonner commented on the post, Winter Is Over…Why Is March Snow/Cold So Rare in Lowland PNW? (Part 1), on the site Karl Bonner's Weather Blog 6 years, 8 months ago
The year 2011 was an interesting one, in that our hottest weather of the year came in early September (much like parts of California often experience!). Also we had a ton of low-elevation snow in March 2012. Sometimes the “normal” seasonal timetable gets skewed…
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Karl Bonner wrote a new post, Winter Is Over…Why Is March Snow/Cold So Rare in Lowland PNW? (Part 1), on the site Karl's Weather Discussions 6 years, 8 months ago
I think it’s pretty obvious now, with daytime temps consistently rising into the 50s over the past several days, that we’re done with any kind of wintry weather for the season. So it’s time to pull the fork and […]
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